Predictions are a waste of time. They’re arrogant. They’re almost always wrong.
You might think that’s a strange thing to say when I’ve just had a good response to my own Predictions 2022, but it’s important to understand that trying to pin the future down is a completely futile exercise.
Forecasts are almost always wrong; scenarios very rarely actually occur.
But as I often say, predicting is more important than predictions. Why? Because the process of imagining possible, fictional futures is what allows us to plan well. To be able to think of the future in the plural, not just the singular, directly impacts the quality of that future.
Being able to answer ‘what-if?’ questions with deliberately radical and even unrealistic possibilities is what differentiates a strategic thinker from an ordinary manager.
It’s not easy.
The ability to suspend belief, allow your imagination to wander, momentarily forget how things are now, absorb lateral topics… and ignore the usual boundaries (including morals, ethics, law, practicality, cost, and conventions) – requires some effort. It’s one of the most underrated yet vital skills, one which only a few of us manage.
The horizons that we’re able to imagine for ourselves correspond directly to how well we can then navigate them.